What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 5%, implying a 5% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Economics

Q4 2024

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (174d) 24h volume 723 Open interest 20.2K Event When will the next US recession start?

implied YES probability

+6.3pp 24h

Last 9 days · High 5% · Low 0% · 7d -78.3pp

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.