What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 9%, implying a 9% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Before Aug 1, 2026

Closes Aug 01, 2026 (22d) 24h volume 1.0K Open interest 7.2K Event Will Trump embargo a new country?

9%

implied YES probability

+4.4pp 24h

Last 40 days · High 21% · Low 2% · 7d -7.7pp · 30d -25.0pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.