What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 20%, implying a 20% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Sports

1: Spain / 2: Uruguay / 3: Saudi Arabia / 4: Cape Verde

Closes Jul 12, 2026 (25d) 24h volume 2.7K Open interest 15.1K Event Group H: Exact Order

20%

implied YES probability

Last 10 days · High 36% · Low 18% · 7d -50.0pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.