polymarket Politics

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026?

Pope Leo XIV
Closes Jun 30, 2026 (12d) 24h volume $13 Open interest $75.0K Event Who will Trump publicly insult by June 30?
4%
implied YES probability
-1.3pp 24h

Price history

Last 23 days · High 50% · Low 4% · 7d -59.5pp
50%4%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Other outcomes in this event

Megyn Kelly
36% YES
24h vol $143
Benjamin Netanyahu
34% YES
24h vol $3.4K
Zohran Mamdani
30% YES
24h vol $115
Keir Starmer
28% YES
24h vol $107
Nicolás Maduro
25% YES
24h vol $746
Alex Jones
24% YES
24h vol $45
Jimmy Kimmel
11% YES
24h vol $1.2K
Emmanuel Macron
10% YES
24h vol $537

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.