What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 60%, implying a 60% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jun 02, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Karen Bass

Closes Jun 02, 2026 (0d) 24h volume $466 Open interest $2.7M Event Los Angeles Mayoral Election

60%

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 91 days · High 84% · Low 17% · 7d 0.0pp · 30d +3.5pp

How this market resolves

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.