What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 76%, implying a 76% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 26, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

Olivia Chow

Closes Oct 26, 2026 (108d) 24h volume $180 Open interest $15.9K Event Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

76%

implied YES probability

-0.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 91 days · High 86% · Low 68% · 7d +2.7pp · 30d -10.6pp

How this market resolves

The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.