Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

The prediction market is asking whether Israel will withdraw from Lebanon by August 31, 2026. The current price for a "Yes" outcome implies an 8% probability of this event occurring. Known facts that inform the current price include ongoing diplomatic efforts and previous agreements between Israel and Lebanon regarding border demarcations. A significant development in these negotiations or a breakthrough in talks could cause the price to increase, potentially indicating a higher likelihood of withdrawal. Conversely, any setbacks or stalemates in the negotiation process could lead to a decrease in the "Yes" price.