polymarket
Sports
Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France?
Jonas Vingegaard
4%
implied YES probability
-7.7pp 24h
Price history
Last 8 days ·
High 49% ·
Low 11%
· 7d -76.7pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the cyclist that wins the 2026 Tour De France scheduled for July 4, 2026 through July 26, 2026.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed cyclist to win the 2026 Men Elite at the Tour De France per the rules of the UCI, the corresponding market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 Tour De France is cancelled, or postponed after August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from UCI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in this event
AI analysis
The prediction market for Jonas Vingegaard winning the 2026 Tour De France currently indicates a probability of approximately 11%, with a YES price of 0.11. This assessment is informed by known facts about Vingegaard's performance in recent years and his status as one of the top contenders in professional cycling. The current price does not reflect any specific event or development that would significantly impact the likelihood of Vingegaard winning, but rather a general consensus among market participants. A change in this assessment could be driven by news about Vingegaard's training regimen, injuries, or other factors that might affect his chances of success.
Generated Jul 09, 2026
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.