polymarket
Politics
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
May 31
0%
implied YES probability
-0.5pp 24h
Price history
Last 35 days ·
High 64% ·
Low 0%
· 7d -99.6pp
· 30d -99.9pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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US Draft Deal Includes Financial Incentives for Iran | Balance of Power: Late Edition 06/16/2026
Bloomberg Politics · 7h ago
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BMW cuts 2026 outlook on China downturn, Iran war
Investing.com · 13h ago
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