Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election. A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election. If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The prediction market is asking whether Jordan Bardella will be the National Rally's candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election. The current price of 0.04 implies a 4% probability that he will hold this position. This assessment is informed by known facts about Bardella's past involvement with the National Rally party and his potential as a candidate. Any announcement or statement from the party confirming or denying Bardella's candidacy would likely impact the market price, with an affirmative announcement driving the price up and a negative outcome pushing it down. The market will resolve once the National Rally party publicly announces its chosen candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.