Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election. A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election. If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The prediction market is asking whether Marine Le Pen will be the National Rally's candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election. The current price of 0.93 implies a 93% probability that she will be chosen as the party's candidate. This assessment is informed by known facts about Le Pen's past performance and her position within the National Rally party. If Le Pen were to publicly announce her candidacy, this would likely drive the price up, indicating a higher likelihood of her being selected as the party's nominee. Conversely, if another individual were to be announced as the candidate, or if Le Pen were to decline the nomination, the price would likely decrease. The market will resolve according to the first public announcement of the National Rally Party's candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.