What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 7%, implying a 7% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?

Japan

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (174d) 24h volume $100 Open interest $42.2K Event Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

implied YES probability

+0.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 91 days · High 22% · Low 7% · 7d -30.0pp · 30d -44.0pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.