What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 0%, implying a 0% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Mar 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31?

December 31

Closes Mar 31, 2026 (0d) 24h volume — Open interest $61.6K Event Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?

implied YES probability

-1.1pp 24h

Price history

Not enough price history yet.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

Trade on Polymarket

Open on Polymarket

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.