polymarket
Politics
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?
June 30, 2026
3%
implied YES probability
-0.7pp 24h
Price history
Last 79 days ·
High 51% ·
Low 3%
· 7d -48.5pp
· 30d -72.1pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Other outcomes in this event
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