What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 1%, implying a 1% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 30, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?

Geraldine Coggins

Closes Jul 30, 2026 (21d) 24h volume $3.3K Open interest $79.0K Event Greater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 21 days · High 22% · Low 0% · 7d -35.7pp

How this market resolves

The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Greater Manchester as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.