polymarket Politics

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

50+ bps decrease
Closes Oct 28, 2026 (111d) 24h volume $82 Open interest $37.5K Event Fed Decision in October?
2%
implied YES probability

Price history

Last 22 days · High 6% · Low 2% · 7d -40.7pp
6%2%

How this market resolves

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Other outcomes in this event

No change
70% YES
24h vol $496
25 bps increase
15% YES
24h vol $513
25 bps decrease
13% YES
24h vol $2.3K
50+ bps increase
2% YES
24h vol $82

Recent news mentioning this market

AI analysis

The prediction market is currently indicating a low probability (2%) that the Fed will decrease interest rates by 50+ basis points after the October 2026 meeting. The current price reflects known facts about the economy and monetary policy, including any publicly available information on the state of inflation, employment, and other key indicators. A change in these factors could impact the market's assessment of the likelihood of a rate cut. If new data suggests a strengthening economy or rising inflation, the YES price may decrease, implying a lower probability of a 50+ basis point rate cut. Conversely, if economic indicators continue to suggest a need for monetary policy accommodation, the YES price may increase, indicating a higher probability of a rate cut. The market will resolve on October 28th, 2026, once the Fed's decision is announced.
Generated Jun 24, 2026

Related stocks

POWL Powell Industries Inc

Trade on Polymarket

Open on Polymarket
Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.