polymarket Politics

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

25 bps decrease
Closes Oct 28, 2026 (111d) 24h volume $2.3K Open interest $37.5K Event Fed Decision in October?
13%
implied YES probability
+0.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 22 days · High 14% · Low 10% · 7d +19.1pp
14%10%

How this market resolves

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Other outcomes in this event

No change
70% YES
24h vol $496
25 bps increase
15% YES
24h vol $520
50+ bps decrease
2% YES
24h vol $82
50+ bps increase
2% YES
24h vol $82

Recent news mentioning this market

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.