polymarket
World
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?
December 31
8%
implied YES probability
-0.5pp 24h
Price history
Last 50 days ·
High 50% ·
Low 10%
· 7d -21.4pp
· 30d -12.0pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.
An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Other outcomes in this event
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