What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 88%, implying a 88% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 11, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Michele Tafoya be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?

Michele Tafoya

Closes Aug 11, 2026 (54d) 24h volume $10 Open interest $4.0K Event Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner

88%

implied YES probability

-4.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 91 days · High 93% · Low 72% · 7d +2.3pp · 30d +15.5pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Other outcomes in this event

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