What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 52%, implying a 52% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 30, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Science

Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Yu Deng

Closes Jul 30, 2026 (42d) 24h volume $806 Open interest $28.1K Event Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

52%

implied YES probability

-10.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 90 days · High 70% · Low 27% · 7d +42.0pp · 30d +89.4pp

How this market resolves

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.