What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 64%, implying a 64% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Business

Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?

Morgan Stanley

Closes Dec 31, 2027 (562d) 24h volume $646 Open interest $3.0K Event Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?

64%

implied YES probability

+21.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 17 days · High 64% · Low 28% · 7d +70.7pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of Anthropic. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or Anthropic completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.” If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of Anthropic’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released. The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from Anthropic. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.