What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 10%, implying a 10% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Science and Technology

Alexander Efimov

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (197d) 24h volume 5 Open interest 296 Event Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?

10%

implied YES probability

+2.8pp 24h

Last 7 days · High 12% · Low 3%

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.