What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 15%, implying a 15% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Science and Technology

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (197d) 24h volume 1 Open interest 520 Event Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?

15%

implied YES probability

Last 12 days · High 30% · Low 11% · 7d -45.2pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.