What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 19%, implying a 19% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Science and Technology

Sam Raskin

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (197d) 24h volume 8 Open interest 790 Event Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?

19%

implied YES probability

-1.0pp 24h

Last 20 days · High 30% · Low 15% · 7d -35.3pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.