What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 38%, implying a 38% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 13, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Economics

At least 2.2M bpd

Closes Jul 13, 2026 (3d) 24h volume 56 Open interest 194 Event Iran crude oil production in Jun 2026

38%

implied YES probability

-1.0pp 24h

Last 12 days · High 45% · Low 27% · 7d 0.0pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.