What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Economics

Q4 2025

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (174d) 24h volume 96 Open interest 31.8K Event When will the next US recession start?

implied YES probability

+3.6pp 24h

Last 34 days · High 14% · Low 2% · 7d +123.8pp · 30d -51.0pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.