polymarket
Pop Culture
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?
140-159
1%
implied YES probability
-21.0pp 24h
Price history
Last 10 days ·
High 48% ·
Low 3%
· 7d +1650.9pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 3 12:00 PM ET to July 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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AI analysis
The prediction market is asking whether Elon Musk will post between 140 and 159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026. The current price of 0.16 implies a 16% probability that this outcome will occur. Known facts informing the current price include Elon Musk's past tweet frequency, which has varied over time but generally averages around 100-150 posts per week. Factors that could increase the likelihood of this outcome and drive the price up include any changes to Musk's Twitter usage habits or increased engagement on his part. Conversely, a decrease in the predicted number of tweets or a change in Musk's posting frequency could cause the price to drop. The market will resolve according to the actual number of tweets posted by Elon Musk during the specified time period.
Generated Jul 09, 2026
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.