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Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?
160-179
56%
implied YES probability
+45.0pp 24h
Price history
Last 10 days ·
High 18% ·
Low 6%
· 7d +93.3pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 3 12:00 PM ET to July 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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AI analysis
The prediction market is asking whether Elon Musk will post between 160 and 179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026. The current price of 0.45 implies a 44% probability that this will occur. Known facts informing the current price include Elon Musk's typical tweet frequency and his recent social media activity. If Elon Musk were to post fewer than 160 tweets during this period, the market price would likely decrease. Conversely, if he posts more than 179 tweets, the price would likely increase. The market will resolve on July 10, 2026, at 4:00 PM UTC when the number of tweets is tallied.
Generated Jul 09, 2026
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.