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Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?
180-199
33%
implied YES probability
+31.4pp 24h
Price history
Last 10 days ·
High 16% ·
Low 2%
· 7d -84.8pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 3 12:00 PM ET to July 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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AI analysis
The prediction market is asking whether Elon Musk will post between 180 and 199 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026. The current price of 0.25 implies a 25% probability that this outcome will occur. Known facts informing the current price include Elon Musk's past tweet frequency, which has varied over time but generally averages around 100-150 posts per week. Factors that could cause the price to increase include an unusually high volume of tweets from Musk during the specified period, while a decrease in price would be driven by a lower-than-expected tweet count or a more consistent posting schedule. The market will close on July 10, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET, and only main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts will be counted towards the total.
Generated Jul 09, 2026
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.