polymarket Politics

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

25 bps increase
Closes Jun 17, 2026 (0d) 24h volume $3.9M Open interest $26.8M Event Fed Decision in June?
0%
implied YES probability

Price history

Last 91 days · High 7% · Low 0% · 7d -76.9pp · 30d -80.0pp
7%0%

How this market resolves

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Other outcomes in this event

No change
100% YES
24h vol $7.4M
25 bps decrease
0% YES
24h vol $3.8M
50+ bps increase
0% YES
24h vol $444.6K
50+ bps decrease
0% YES
24h vol $2.4M

Recent news mentioning this market

AI analysis

The prediction market for the Fed's interest rate decision after its June 2026 meeting currently indicates a 0% probability of a 25-basis-point increase. This assessment is informed by known facts about the current economic environment and the Federal Reserve's recent actions. The market is asking whether the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting, with the outcome tied to the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. A price movement up would indicate a higher probability of a rate hike, while a decrease would suggest a lower likelihood. Any new information about the economy or the Fed's intentions that suggests a more accommodative monetary policy could drive the price down, whereas signs of inflationary pressures or a strengthening economy might push the price up.
Generated Jun 17, 2026

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.