polymarket Politics

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

No change
Closes Jun 17, 2026 (0d) 24h volume $7.5M Open interest $26.8M Event Fed Decision in June?
100%
implied YES probability

Price history

Last 90 days · High 100% · Low 84% · 7d +0.4pp · 30d +1.4pp
100%84%

How this market resolves

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Other outcomes in this event

25 bps decrease
0% YES
24h vol $3.7M
25 bps increase
0% YES
24h vol $3.9M
50+ bps increase
0% YES
24h vol $389.6K
50+ bps decrease
0% YES
24h vol $2.3M

Recent news mentioning this market

AI analysis

The prediction market for the Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting suggests that there will be no change in rates with a current YES price of 1.00, implying a 100% probability. This assessment is based on known facts about the Federal Reserve's recent actions and statements. The market is currently pricing in a continuation of the status quo, which would maintain the current target federal funds range. Any changes to this outlook, such as unexpected economic data or shifts in monetary policy, could cause the price to move down if there is a higher likelihood of rate cuts or up if there is a greater chance of rate hikes. The market will resolve on June 17th, 2026, based on the actual change in the target federal funds range following the Fed's decision.
Generated Jun 17, 2026

Related stocks

POWL Powell Industries Inc

Trade on Polymarket

Open on Polymarket
Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.