polymarket Politics

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

25 bps decrease
Closes Jun 17, 2026 (0d) 24h volume $3.8M Open interest $26.8M Event Fed Decision in June?
0%
implied YES probability

Price history

Last 91 days · High 12% · Low 0% · 7d -28.6pp · 30d -80.8pp
12%0%

How this market resolves

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Other outcomes in this event

No change
100% YES
24h vol $7.4M
25 bps increase
0% YES
24h vol $3.9M
50+ bps increase
0% YES
24h vol $444.6K
50+ bps decrease
0% YES
24h vol $2.4M

Recent news mentioning this market

AI analysis

The prediction market for the Fed's decision on interest rates after its June 2026 meeting currently indicates a 0% probability of a 25 basis point decrease. This assessment is informed by the current state of economic indicators and monetary policy decisions. The market is asking whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will reduce the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points at its June meeting, with the outcome tied to the actual change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range. Any changes to the FOMC's stance on interest rates or unexpected shifts in economic data could impact the market price, potentially driving it up if a decrease is more likely or down if an increase or no change is anticipated.
Generated Jun 17, 2026

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.