What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 0%, implying a 0% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2025. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Starmer out by April 30, 2026?

April 30

Closes Dec 31, 2025 (0d) 24h volume — Open interest $1.6M Event Starmer out by...?

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 44 days · High 9% · Low 0% · 7d -98.3pp · 30d -98.2pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between February 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.