What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 20%, implying a 20% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Trump deport 300-400k people?

300-400k

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (196d) 24h volume $10 Open interest $9.0K Event How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

20%

implied YES probability

-2.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 89 days · High 58% · Low 17% · 7d -20.9pp · 30d -59.5pp

How this market resolves

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.

Other outcomes in this event

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