What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 78%, implying a 78% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jun 17, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Economics

Above 0.2%

Closes Jun 17, 2026 (0d) 24h volume 138 Open interest 1.1K Event US retail sales in May

78%

implied YES probability

+4.0pp 24h

Last 11 days · High 95% · Low 45% · 7d +102.2pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.