What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jun 17, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Economics

Above 1.2%

Closes Jun 17, 2026 (0d) 24h volume 50 Open interest 191 Event US retail sales in May

implied YES probability

-7.0pp 24h

Last 12 days · High 18% · Low 1% · 7d 0.0pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.