What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 27%, implying a 27% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jun 17, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Economics

Above 1.4%

Closes Jun 17, 2026 (0d) 24h volume 86 Open interest 119 Event US retail sales in May

27%

implied YES probability

-13.0pp 24h

Last 1 days · High 14% · Low 14%

Not enough price history yet.

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.