What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 15%, implying a 15% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jun 17, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Economics

Above 0.8%

Closes Jun 17, 2026 (0d) 24h volume 635 Open interest 869 Event US retail sales in May

15%

implied YES probability

Last 7 days · High 48% · Low 12%

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.