What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 7%, implying a 7% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jun 30, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Business

Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026

375k–400k

Closes Jun 30, 2026 (12d) 24h volume $31 Open interest $14.1K Event How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?

implied YES probability

-1.1pp 24h

Price history

Last 74 days · High 38% · Low 4% · 7d -41.7pp · 30d -69.3pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.

Other outcomes in this event

Related stocks

TSLA Tesla, Inc. Common Stock

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.