IVR Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.
XNYS 5.53 DelayedStock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership. Iron condor setups Fibonacci levels Insider trading
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
IVR
$5.53
—
Key stats
$5.53
- 52-Week Range
- $5.45 – $9.50
- YTD
- -34.79%
- Straddle Price
- $0.78
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.35
- Market Cap
- $0.6B
- Open
- $5.67
- Day Range
- $5.50 – $5.68
- Volume
- 3,289,348
- Prev Close
- $5.64
Fair Value
+50.0% vs price
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 5.21% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.15 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 11.52% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 11.53% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +59.6pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +50bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +3.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 10 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.03 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $0.2B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | 10.8% |
| Book / Price | 225.7% — banking bias active (P/B is primary) |
| Debt / Equity | 0.00 |
| Quality Score | 2/6 — normal (10y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $6.74 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $5.99 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 412.5% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $-0.1B |
| Market Cap | $0B |
Peers used for multiples: ABR, ACRE, ADAM, AGNC, ARR, NLY, ORC, RC
Blended Fair Value
$12.96
Deviation
+50.0%
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | $25.83 | 22% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | $18.85 | 17% | |
| Peer P/E | $7.38 | 7% | median 4.7× · 6 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/B | $7.38 | 7% | median 0.6× · 8 peers |
| Peer P/S | n/a | 0% | median 3.2× · 4 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $6.74 | 37% | stability 85% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | $5.70 | 11% | 10 strikes · skew +0.14 |
As of 2026-10-16 · updated
Related
About
- Industry (SIC)
- REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS (6798) · industry map
- Exchange
- XNYS
- Market Cap
- $0.6B
- List Date
- 2009-06-25
- CIK
- 0001437071
- Next Earnings
- 2026-10-29 (Pre-Market)
- EPS Forecast
- $0.46 (1 est.)
- Headquarters
- Atlanta, GA
- Homepage
- https://www.invescomortgagecapital.com
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc is a REIT that invests, finances, and manages residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities and mortgage loans. The company's portfolio consists of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) that are guaranteed by a U.S. government agency such as the Government National Mortgage Association, or a federally chartered corporation such as the Federal National Mortgage Association or the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation; Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) that are not guaranteed by a U.S. government agency or a federally chartered corporation…
Summary
—
composite
—
No summary data available for this symbol yet.
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
Chart
Seasonality
| Month | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 22.42% | -8.22% | 11.63% | 1.61% | 3.68% | 1.30% | 5.40% |
| Feb | -2.99% | -18.66% | -17.57% | 0.67% | 5.40% | -5.17% | -6.39% |
| Mar | 2.30% | 8.57% | -9.17% | 7.08% | -8.26% | -3.35% | -0.47% |
| Apr | -4.65% | -24.68% | -2.84% | -11.21% | -8.83% | 1.75% | -8.41% |
| May | -12.82% | -0.56% | 3.41% | 5.69% | 0.27% | -5.52% | -1.59% |
| Jun | 15.04% | -17.53% | 6.30% | 0.11% | 7.69% | 0.38% | 2.00% |
| Jul | -10.88% | 15.08% | 6.66% | -2.16% | -4.55% | -6.32% | -0.36% |
| Aug | -8.77% | -10.02% | -4.74% | -2.56% | 3.17% | -1.08% | -4.00% |
| Sep | 0.64% | -29.48% | -11.34% | 9.19% | -2.58% | -15.58% | -8.19% |
| Oct | -3.09% | 3.35% | -30.52% | -11.90% | -3.21% | -4.98%* | -8.39% |
| Nov | -6.25% | 12.22% | 11.40% | 3.60% | 8.75% | -- | 5.94% |
| Dec | -5.12% | -3.92% | 7.92% | -4.05% | 2.69% | -- | -0.50% |
| Total | -18.05% | -59.26% | -32.83% | -6.19% | 2.34% | -33.40% | -24.57% |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $5.94
SMA 50: $6.70
SMA 200: $7.82
Current: $5.53
EMA 12: $5.73
EMA 26: $6.07
MACD: -0.3380 | Signal: 0.0108
BEARISH
ADX (14): 66.80
STRONG TREND
+DI: 9.96
−DI: 37.38
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 22.37
OVERSOLD
Stoch %K: 13.67
Stoch %D: 13.14
Williams %R: -91.11
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $6.68
BB Lower: $5.21
NEUTRAL
OBV: -103,664,757
Vol SMA 20: 3,598,934
Vol ROC: -37.05%
ATR: $0.17
True Range: $0.18
HV 20: 25.6%
HV 30: 24.0%
HV 60: 19.6%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated:
Date Range: 2024-10-18T00:00:00 – 2026-10-16T00:00:00
AI Analysis
IVR (Invesco Mortgage Capital) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis
Executive Summary
Overall Assessment: BEARISH | Confidence Level: 8/10
Key Drivers: Invesco Mortgage Capital is experiencing a severe technical breakdown characterized by an oversold RSI (15.70), strong downtrend momentum (ADX 63.85), and negative MACD crossover. The stock trades significantly below all major moving averages ($5.61 vs SMA 200 of $7.93, a 29.3% decline), indicating structural weakness in the mortgage REIT sector. Recent negative news sentiment (2 bearish headlines within 3 weeks of price action) coincides with this deterioration.
Primary Risks: Mortgage REIT exposure to rising interest rates, negative momentum persistence, and weak institutional support (Put/Call OI ratio of 0.51 shows modest bearish positioning).
Investment Thesis: IVR is trapped in a powerful downtrend with oversold technical extremes creating a potential mean-reversion bounce opportunity, but the negative directional bias (-DI 45.11 vs +DI 4.19) and deteriorating fundamentals suggest the path of least resistance remains lower. The mortgage REIT's dividend-dependent valuation model is vulnerable to interest rate regimes.
Recent News Sentiment Impact: Negative sentiment headlines (2 recent articles on Sept 11 and Sept 30) directly align with the sharp price decline below the $6.29 SMA 20, reinforcing technical weakness and institutional selling pressure.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction
Short-term (1-4 weeks): STRONGLY BEARISH
- Price: $5.61 trading below all three major moving averages
- Below SMA 20: -10.8% | Below SMA 50: -19.3% | Below SMA 200: -29.3%
- EMA 12 ($6.02) still above price but declining, indicating weakening momentum
- Clear downtrend structure established
Medium-term (1-3 months): BEARISH
- Price compression from $7.93 (200-day) to $5.61 represents 29% decline over 3-4 month window
- All moving average hierarchy intact (20 < 50 < 200), textbook bearish alignment
- No evidence of reversal structure forming
Long-term (3-12 months): BEARISH
- 200-day moving average at $7.93 represents significant resistance ceiling
- No consolidation or stabilization patterns visible
- Dividend-paying mortgage REIT in unfavorable rate environment
Support/Resistance Levels
Immediate Support (critical):
- Lower Bollinger Band: $5.53 (1.4% below current price) — near-term floor
- Recent lows clustered around $5.50-$5.55 area
Secondary Support:
- $5.20-$5.30 zone (extrapolating from 2-week decline trajectory)
- Psychological $5.00 level (potential capitulation zone)
Resistance (Technical Recovery Levels):
- SMA 20 at $6.29 (breakeven from current is +12.1% move) — first critical hurdle
- SMA 50 at $6.95 (+23.9% move) — secondary reversal target
- SMA 200 at $7.93 (+41.4% move) — major bear market resistance
Momentum Signals
RSI (14): 15.70 — EXTREME OVERSOLD CONDITION
- Far below 30 oversold threshold, indicating maximum bearish momentum
- Readings <20 typically precede sharp bounces (but don't predict direction)
- This extreme suggests reversal potential if structural issues stabilize
- Interpretation: Exhaustion signal rather than buy signal given negative divergence
MACD: -0.38 / Signal: -0.05 / Histogram: -0.33 — BEARISH CROSSOVER
- MACD below signal line (recent crossover below) confirms negative momentum
- Histogram deeply negative (-0.33), showing accelerating downside pressure
- No signs of positive divergence (MACD not rising toward signal line)
- Interpretation: Momentum remains firmly bearish; reversal would require MACD cross back above signal
Bollinger Bands Position: NEUTRAL
- Upper Band: $7.06 | Middle: $6.29 | Lower: $5.53
- Price at $5.61 sits just above lower band (within ~1.4%)
- Band width at 24.29 is moderate, not extreme squeeze
- Position near lower band typically suggests mean-reversion pullback within trend
- Interpretation: Next touch of $5.53 lower band could trigger bounce to $6.29 middle band, but upper band ($7.06) still unreached
Volume Analysis
Volume Trends:
- Volume SMA 20: 3.74M shares/day (baseline)
- Volume Rate of Change: +34.01% (sharply elevated)
- Elevated volume confirms institutional selling pressure during the recent decline
- This is heavy selling, not liquidation bottom
On-Balance Volume (OBV): -96.6M
- Deeply negative OBV indicates sustained institutional exit
- OBV not showing reversal uptick, confirming persistent selling
- Critical Signal: Negative OBV combined with oversold RSI suggests sellers remain in control
Institutional Interest Signals:
- Elevated volume (+34% ROC) on down moves = professional distribution
- Not consistent with reversal accumulation patterns
- Suggests sophisticated participants moving away from IVR
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary (10-Article Review)
Timeframe of news: March 13 - September 30, 2026
Thematic Breakdown:
- Negative Catalysts (2): Sept 30 and Sept 11 articles highlight IVR underperformance vs. broader market
- Neutral Routine (6): Dividend announcements and routine financial updates (March through June)
- Data Gap: No July/August news visible, suggesting lack of positive catalysts or analyst attention
Sentiment Score by Theme:
- Recent Performance (Sept): 2/10 Negative
- Dividend Continuity (Mar-Jun): 5/10 Neutral
- Analyst Activity: Declining coverage (only Zacks and Benzinga visible)
Sentiment Assessment: NEGATIVE
Aggregate Sentiment: 35/100 (Bearish lean)
The recent negative headlines (Sept 11, 30) directly correlate with technical breakdown below SMA 20 and SMA 50, suggesting these articles may be covering news events that triggered institutional exits. The lack of positive catalysts in recent months (no earnings beats, no product/partnership announcements typical of dividend REITs) indicates deteriorating fundamental outlook.
Catalyst Identification
Immediate Catalysts (1-7 days):
- Potential bounce from RSI extreme oversold (<20 levels)
- No specific earnings or announcement dates provided
- Interest rate expectations from Fed communication
Near-term Catalysts (1-4 weeks):
- Federal Reserve rate decision communications (mortgage REITs highly sensitive)
- Mortgage market data (housing starts, mortgage applications, refi activity)
- Dividend sustainability announcement (critical for this mREIT)
- Technical re-test of support levels around $5.50
Medium-term Catalysts (1-3 months):
- Quarterly earnings report (date not provided in data)
- Portfolio stress tests under various rate scenarios
- Potential dividend cut announcement (risk factor for income-focused investors)
- Refinancing activity trends in mortgage market
Market Narrative Analysis
Narrative Alignment:
- Technical signals and news STRONGLY ALIGNED: Both point to deterioration
- Negative headlines hit during technical breakdown = confirmation of weakness
- Market narrative: "Mortgage REIT valuations compressed by rate environment"
- Risk of narrative becoming: "IVR dividend at risk" (potential cascade selling)
Contrarian View:
- Extreme RSI oversold could attract value buyers who believe dividend is protected
- However, absence of positive news counters this play
Risk & Volatility Assessment
Beta Interpretation: 0.72 vs SPY
Risk Classification: LOW VOLATILITY DEFENSIVE
- Beta of 0.72 indicates IVR moves 28% less than S&P 500
- In up markets: IVR gains are muted (positive)
- In down markets: IVR losses are also muted (positive)
- Critical Context: Despite low beta,
Generated
News
All IVR news →
Earnings History
20 of 21 under expected move
Avg Expected Move
9.29%
Avg Actual Move
1.35%
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-02-01 | Pre-Market | 13.61% | 0.74% | 0.05x | Within |
| 2021-05-05 | Pre-Market | 6.27% | 0.78% | 0.12x | Within |
| 2021-08-04 | Pre-Market | 6.74% | 1.17% | 0.17x | Within |
| 2021-11-03 | Pre-Market | 4.21% | 1.25% | 0.30x | Within |
| 2022-05-04 | Pre-Market | 0.86% | 1.08% | 1.26x | Exceeded |
| 2022-08-04 | Pre-Market | 4.97% | 4.09% | 0.82x | Within |
| 2022-11-02 | Pre-Market | 7.61% | 3.85% | 0.51x | Within |
| 2023-05-09 | Pre-Market | 6.76% | 1.96% | 0.29x | Within |
| 2023-08-03 | Pre-Market | 4.28% | 3.25% | 0.76x | Within |
| 2023-11-06 | Pre-Market | 6.57% | 0.88% | 0.13x | Within |
| 2024-02-22 | Pre-Market | 4.87% | 0.12% | 0.02x | Within |
| 2024-05-08 | Pre-Market | 5.26% | 0.22% | 0.04x | Within |
| 2024-08-08 | After-Close | 4.85% | 0.91% | 0.19x | Within |
| 2024-11-05 | After-Close | 6.14% | 1.84% | 0.30x | Within |
| 2025-05-07 | Pre-Market | 5.57% | 2.37% | 0.43x | Within |
| 2025-07-24 | Pre-Market | 73.26% | 0.26% | 0.00x | Within |
| 2025-10-30 | Pre-Market | 6.16% | 1.78% | 0.29x | Within |
| 2026-01-29 | Pre-Market | 5.31% | 0.56% | 0.11x | Within |
| 2026-04-30 | Pre-Market | 4.94% | 0.49% | 0.10x | Within |
| 2026-07-30 | Pre-Market | 8.77% | 0.00% | 0.00x | Within |
| 2026-10-14 | Pre-Market | 8.04% | 0.71% | 0.09x | Within |
Earnings calendar: this week’s reports with expected vs actual moves →
IVR Options Activity & IV Rank
Volatility Metrics
Current IV: —
7-DTE IV: —
Expected Move: $0.78
7-DTE Move: $1.77
Days to Exp: 35 (2026-11-20)
Options Flow
Call Volume: 333
Put Volume: 116
P/C Volume: 0.348
BULLISH
Call OI: 2,030
Put OI: 1,350
P/C OI: 0.665
Total OI: 3,380
ATM Options Pricing
ATM Call: $0.05
ATM Put: $0.72
Call %: 0.9%
Put %: 13.1%
Chain Summary
Chain Volume: 1,083
Chain OI: 13,178
Last Updated: 10/16/2026
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Dealer Positioning
TYPICAL γ
Estimated net dealer gamma is at the 20th percentile of this name's own daily history, within its typical range. This describes current positioning; it is not a forecast or a trading signal.
Gamma percentile
20%
vs own history
GEX tilt
-0.06
OI-weighted, today
Vanna tilt
+0.88
δ-sensitivity to IV
Charm tilt
-0.89
δ-decay vs time
Vanna tilt +0.88: the estimated dealer exposure leans positive, so the modeled hedge would shift noticeably if implied volatility changed.
Charm tilt -0.89: the estimated dealer exposure leans negative, so the modeled hedge would shift noticeably as time passes and options approach expiry.
? What is this?
· 7 ATM contracts, 1k total OI
Net dealer gamma is an estimate of the aggregate gamma held by options market makers across this name's option chain, weighted by open interest. Dealer positions aren't public, so it uses a standard simplifying assumption: dealers are treated as long the calls and short the puts that are open. Actual dealer books can differ.
Gamma percentile ranks today's estimate against this name's own daily history, from 0% (the lowest reading on record) to 100% (the highest). Raw gamma scales with how much open interest a chain carries, so it isn't comparable across names; the percentile is. The badge marks the bottom 20% as low and the top 20% as high.
Tilts run from −1 to +1 and show how lopsided the estimated dealer exposure is. GEX tilt compares call gamma with put gamma. Vanna tilt describes how the hedge would shift if implied volatility changed, and charm tilt how it would shift with the passage of time.
This card describes estimated positioning and where it sits historically. It is not a forecast of price direction or volatility and not a trading signal. Market-wide view: Dealer positioning screener.
Skew (Wing IV − ATM IV)
DTE:
Wing Δ:
Wing vs ATM
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
Risk Reversal
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Reading them together
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
14 DTE / 10d
—
—
pts
EXTREME
No data
30 DTE / 10d
—
—
pts
EXTREME
ATM 44.9% / Wing —
Extreme reading.
Historically these have been contrarian — on the small set of observed earnings-day cases, large negative wing-vs-ATM gaps (calls pricing much richer than puts at the same delta) preceded sharp drops in the underlying within 1-12 days. Not financial advice and the dataset is small.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Volatility Smile
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)
Straddle Price (30 DTE)$0.78Oct 16
Beta Analysis
Risk Metrics
Beta: 0.7127
Alpha: -34.70%
Correlation: 0.3903
R-Squared: 15.2%
Stock Volatility: 23.3%
Market Volatility: 12.7%
Analysis Details
Benchmark: SPY
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Interpretation:
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
Notable investors who own IVR
4 of 37 tracked investors
| Investor | Value | Share of their portfolio | Rank | Q/Q shares | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renaissance Technologies Hedge fund Jim Simons | $2.3M | #1879 of 3138 | -57.4% | 13F | |
| Citadel Hedge fund Ken Griffin | $1.7M | #3075 of 6285 | +1349.6% | 13F | |
| Millennium Management Hedge fund Izzy Englander | $1.4M | #2772 of 3716 | -21.8% | 13F | |
| Rockefeller Capital Management Family office Rockefeller family | $114K | #2917 of 4729 | +943.8% | 13F |
Hedge funds, activists, holding companies and family offices we track, from their latest 13F (quarter-end value) and Form 4 filings in the last 3 years. Family offices · all institutions
IVR Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-09-30
? 13F Guide
Diluted shares outstanding: 77,810,413 (as of 2026-06-30)
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
10 filers$8.19M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $3.25M | 39.67% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $1.28M | 15.61% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | Millennium Management LLC Custodian | $1.13M | 13.81% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | Centiva Capital, LP | $809.75K | 9.88% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $729.17K | 8.90% | 2026-06-30 |
| 6 | Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian | $539.57K | 6.59% | 2026-06-30 |
| 7 | Wolverine Trading, LLC Custodian | $248.24K | 3.03% | 2025-09-30 |
| 8 | Simplex Trading, LLC Custodian | $172.22K | 2.10% | 2026-06-30 |
| 9 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $26.86K | 0.33% | 2026-06-30 |
| 10 | Walleye Trading LLC | $6.32K | 0.08% | 2026-06-30 |
7 filers$1.48M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $783.68K | 52.90% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $242.53K | 16.37% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | Wolverine Trading, LLC Custodian | $213.41K | 14.41% | 2025-09-30 |
| 4 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $168.27K | 11.36% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | Walleye Trading LLC | $39.50K | 2.67% | 2026-06-30 |
| 6 | Simplex Trading, LLC Custodian | $32.39K | 2.19% | 2026-06-30 |
| 7 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $1.58K | 0.11% | 2026-06-30 |
IVR Insider Trading (Form 4)
Latest: 2026-08-18Form 4 filings — insider beneficial-ownership changes by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders. Filed within 2 business days of transaction.
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Peter M Graham | Director | Award (A) | +10,653 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-19 | Wes McMullan | Director | Award (A) | +13,157 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-19 | Don H Liu | Director | Award (A) | +13,157 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-19 | John Day | Director | Disp (D) | −5,026 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-19 | Robert L Fleshman | Director | Award (A) | +13,157 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-19 | Katharine Kelley | Director | Award (A) | +13,157 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-07 | Mark William Gregson | Chief Financial Officer | Buy (P) | +1,750 | $8.03 | $14.0K | EDGAR |
| 2026-03-03 | Robert Waldner | Director | Buy (P) | +1,000 | $8.45 | $8.4K | EDGAR |
| 2025-11-12 | Robert L Fleshman | Director | Sell (S) | −2,000 | $24.72 | -$49.4K | EDGAR |
| 2025-05-19 | Wes McMullan | Director | Award (A) | +13,689 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-05-19 | Don H Liu | Director | Award (A) | +13,689 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-05-19 | Katharine Kelley | Director | Award (A) | +13,689 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-05-19 | Carolyn B Handlon | Director | Award (A) | +13,689 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-05-19 | Robert L Fleshman | Director | Award (A) | +13,689 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-05-19 | John Day | Director | Award (A) | +13,689 | — | EDGAR |
Codes: P = open-market purchase · S = open-market sale · A = grant/award · M = option exercise · F = tax withholding at vest · G = bona-fide gift · D = disposition to issuer · J = other (described in filing footnote — typically 401(k), trust, inheritance) · W = will/inheritance. Only P / S codes carry directional signal.
IVR Insider Holdings
9 insiders · @ $5.53
Officers, directors, and 10%+ owners who have filed a Form 4 in the past two years, ranked by current disclosed exposure (shares × today's price). Shares are direct + indirect (via trusts / LLCs / spouse). Excludes unvested RSU and option grants — those aren't beneficially owned until vest.
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Don H Liu | Director | 52,243 | $288.9K | $0 | 6 | 2026-05-19 |
| 2 | Katharine Kelley | Director | 47,400 | $262.1K | $0 | 5 | 2026-05-19 |
| 3 | Carolyn B Handlon | Director | 44,614 | $246.7K | $0 | 23 | 2025-05-19 |
| 4 | John Day | Director | 39,842 | $220.3K | $150.3K | 63 | 2026-05-19 |
| 5 | Wes McMullan | Director | 35,391 | $195.7K | $0 | 3 | 2026-05-19 |
| 6 | Robert L Fleshman | Director | 32,415 | $179.3K | -$49.4K | 3 | 2026-05-19 |
| 7 | Peter M Graham | Director | 10,653 | $58.9K | $0 | 1 | 2026-08-18 |
| 8 | Mark William Gregson | Chief Financial Officer | 1,750 | $9.7K | $14.0K | 1 | 2026-05-07 |
| 9 | Robert Waldner | Director | 1,000 | $5.5K | $8.4K | 1 | 2026-03-03 |
Lifetime OM Net = signed sum of open-market buys (P) and sells (S) over their career; excludes grants, tax withholdings, and dispositions to issuer. A large negative number is normal for long-tenured executives — they've sold compensation grants over many years.
ETF Holders
38 ETFs hold IVR
25 shown · $118.57M total exposure · 0.03% AUM-weighted avg weight
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VTI Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF | Vanguard | 0.00% | $17.0M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 2 | IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.02% | $16.2M | $78.9B | 2026-10-14 |
| 3 | KBWD Invesco KBW High Dividend Yield Financial ETF | Invesco | 4.41% | $14.8M | — | 2026-10-14 |
| 4 | PFF iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.08% | $9.8M | $12.1B | 2026-10-14 |
| 5 | REM iShares Mortgage Real Estate ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 1.94% | $8.9M | $471.5M | 2026-10-14 |
| 6 | MORT VanEck Mortgage REIT Income ETF | VanEck | 2.68% | $8.1M | $311.8M | 2026-10-14 |
| 7 | SDIV Global X SuperDividend ETF | Global X | 0.68% | $7.9M | — | 2026-10-15 |
| 8 | VXF Vanguard Extended Market ETF | Vanguard | 0.01% | $7.4M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 9 | IWN iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.04% | $5.4M | $13.7B | 2026-10-14 |
| 10 | SRET Global X SuperDividend REIT ETF | Global X | 2.55% | $5.1M | — | 2026-10-15 |
| 11 | VTWO Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF | Vanguard | 0.02% | $3.7M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 12 | SCHA Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF | Nport | 0.01% | $2.7M | — | 2026-05-31 |
| 13 | FDM First Trust Dow Jones Select MicroCap Index Fund | First Trust | 1.00% | $2.6M | $260.0M | 2026-10-14 |
| 14 | IWC iShares Micro-Cap ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.15% | $1.8M | $1.3B | 2026-10-14 |
| 15 | RIET Hoya Capital High Dividend Yield ETF | Nport | 1.15% | $1.2M | — | 2026-05-31 |
| 16 | VFH Vanguard Financials ETF | Vanguard | 0.01% | $1.0M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 17 | ITOT iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.00% | $853,015 | $97.1B | 2026-10-14 |
| 18 | SMIZ Zacks Small/Mid Cap ETF | Nport | 0.30% | $775,604 | — | 2026-05-31 |
| 19 | VTWV Vanguard Russell 2000 Value ETF | Vanguard | 0.04% | $587,242 | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 20 | PRFZ Invesco RAFI US 1500 Small-Mid ETF | Nport | 0.02% | $506,940 | — | 2026-07-31 |
| 21 | JPSE JPMorgan Diversified Return U.S. Small Cap Equity ETF | JPMorgan | 0.09% | $494,904 | $568.5M | 2026-10-15 |
| 22 | SMLF iShares U.S. Small-Cap Equity Factor ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.01% | $412,224 | $4.1B | 2026-10-14 |
| 23 | SCHB Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF | Nport | 0.00% | $375,368 | — | 2026-05-31 |
| 24 | CVY Invesco Zacks Multi-Asset Income ETF | Nport | 0.25% | $306,018 | — | 2026-07-31 |
| 25 | RSSL Global X Russell 2000 ETF | Global X | 0.02% | $282,130 | — | 2026-10-15 |
Fundamentals
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
Metrics
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
Trailing P/E
3.66
TTM Diluted EPS
$1.51
TTM Revenue
—
TTM Net Income
$107.17M
TTM Op. Cash Flow
$166.02M
Quarterly figures (12 quarters)
| Quarter | Period End | Revenue | Net Income | Diluted EPS | Op. Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 '26 | 2026-06-30 | — | $31.84M | $0.34 | $42.23M |
| Q1 '26 | 2026-03-31 | — | $-23.12M | $-0.28 | $26.68M |
| Q4 '25 | 2025-12-31 | — | $48.24M | $0.71 | $59.81M |
| Q3 '25 | 2025-09-30 | — | $50.21M | $0.74 | $37.30M |
| Q2 '25 | 2025-06-30 | — | $-26.57M | $-0.40 | $40.63M |
| Q1 '25 | 2025-03-31 | — | $16.29M | $0.26 | $19.35M |
| Q4 '24 | 2024-12-31 | — | $-5.47M | $-0.13 | $61.85M |
| Q3 '24 | 2024-09-30 | — | $35.27M | $0.63 | $30.83M |
| Q2 '24 | 2024-06-30 | — | $-18.77M | $-0.38 | $32.98M |
| Q1 '24 | 2024-03-31 | — | $23.73M | $0.49 | $57.50M |
| Q4 '23 | 2023-12-31 | — | $22.28M | $0.55 | $31.67M |
| Q3 '23 | 2023-09-30 | $75.13M | $-74.02M | $-1.62 | $52.37M |
Q2 2026 • period ending 2026-06-30 • filed 2026-08-05
Valuation
Ratios derived from TTM financials and the current market price, sampled daily. History chart shows how expensive the stock is today relative to its own recent past.
Price Multiples
- P/E — price / TTM earnings. Rough market rule: 10–15 value, 15–25 market, >30 growth/premium. Negative when earnings are negative.
- P/B — price / book value. Useful for financials and asset-heavy names; meaningless for asset-light software.
- P/S — price / TTM revenue. Useful when earnings are negative or noisy (early-stage growth).
- EV/EBITDA — capital-structure-neutral. <10 cheap, 10–15 reasonable, >20 rich. Good for comparing across leverage profiles.
- EV/Sales — like P/S but accounts for debt + cash. Compare within sector.
Profitability & Yields
- ROE — return on equity. >15% strong, >25% exceptional. Caution: high leverage inflates ROE.
- ROA — return on assets. Leverage-neutral; >5% solid, >10% exceptional.
- Div Yield — annual dividend / price. Compare to 10Y Treasury; sustained yield >6% often signals distress.
- FCF Yield — free cash flow / market cap. >5% is attractive; negative means burning cash.
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity — leverage. <1 conservative, >2 aggressive. Sector-dependent (utilities naturally high, tech low).
- Current Ratio — short-term liquidity. >1.5 comfortable, <1 raises short-term solvency flags.
Reading the history chart
- Compare current level to the 3-year band: near the high end = relatively expensive; near the low = relatively cheap.
- Multiples expanding while earnings are flat = sentiment-driven rally.
- Multiples compressing while earnings grow = value coming from fundamentals.
P/E
3.66
P/B
0.43
P/S
—
EV/EBITDA
—
EV/Sales
—
ROE
10.8%
ROA
1.5%
Div Yield
22.46%
FCF Yield
38.58%
Debt/Equity
0.00
Current Ratio
—
Market Cap
$430.29M
as of 2026-10-16
Short Interest & Float
Regulatory short-interest reports publish on a bi-weekly settlement cadence; short-volume is reported daily by the trade-reporting facilities. Float is derived from insider-ownership filings.
Metric definitions
- Short Interest — total shares currently sold short as of the settlement date. Lags real time by ~8 business days.
- SI % of Float — short interest / free float. The key crowding metric.
- Days to Cover — short interest / avg daily volume. How many full trading days it would take shorts to buy back. High DTC + catalyst = squeeze fuel.
- Short Vol Ratio — today's short-sale volume / total volume. Intraday selling pressure proxy (not the same as short interest).
- Free Float — shares available for public trading (total shares minus insider / restricted).
- Float % — free float / shares outstanding. <50% = tightly held, more prone to squeezes.
How to read the signals
- SI % of Float < 5% — typical, no particular signal.
- 5–15% — elevated; watch for catalysts (earnings, guidance, macro).
- 15–30% — heavily shorted; tight-float names in this range have produced notable squeezes historically.
- >30% — extreme; borrow is likely expensive and squeeze risk is material.
- Days to Cover > 5 combined with high SI% amplifies squeeze potential.
History chart
- Trend matters more than level. Rapidly rising short interest often precedes negative catalysts or heavy hedging.
- A sudden drop in SI after a rally may indicate a squeeze in progress.
Short interest is reported mid-month and end-of-month; short volume is daily.
Short Interest
11.55M
SI % of Float
10.76%
Days to Cover
3.30
Short Vol Ratio
71.2%
Free Float
107.36M
Float %
99.7%
Short interest 2026-09-30 • Short volume 2026-10-16 • Float 2026-08-14