What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 15%, implying a 15% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 26, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Sports

Will Spain play Argentina in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final?

Spain vs Argentina

Closes Jul 26, 2026 (17d) 24h volume 100.9K Open interest 366.5K Event World Cup Final Matchup

15%

implied YES probability

+0.7pp 24h

Price history

Last 9 days · High 20% · Low 8% · 7d -29.4pp

Other outcomes in this event

AI analysis

The prediction market for the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final matchup between Spain and Argentina indicates a relatively low probability of this matchup occurring, with a current YES price of 0.14, implying a 14% chance. This assessment is informed by known facts such as the teams' recent performances and their respective strengths in the tournament. The market is currently pricing in a low likelihood of these two teams meeting in the final due to the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the tournament's earlier matches. Any significant changes in team performance or injuries could impact the YES price, potentially driving it up if one or both teams experience a surge in form, or down if they suffer setbacks. The market will continue to reassess and adjust its probability estimate as new information becomes available until the closing date on July 26th, 2026.

Generated Jul 09, 2026

Top of book

Bid	Size	Ask	Size
14.5¢	2123	14.6¢	867
14.4¢	100	14.7¢	302
14.2¢	2500	14.8¢	1704
14.1¢	3964	14.9¢	19
13.9¢	10000	16.2¢	2924

Spread 0.1¢ · Mid 14.5¢

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.