What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 9%, implying a 9% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 26, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Sports

Will France play Norway in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final?

France vs Norway

Closes Jul 26, 2026 (17d) 24h volume 96.3K Open interest 495.2K Event World Cup Final Matchup

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 7 days · High 12% · Low 3%

Other outcomes in this event

AI analysis

The prediction market is currently pricing France to play Norway in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final at a probability of approximately 9%. This assessment is informed by known facts such as the teams' recent performances and group stage draw. The current price does not reflect any specific information about the teams' strengths or weaknesses, but rather aggregates the collective opinions of market participants. A significant change in the teams' form or an unexpected upset in the tournament could potentially drive the price up or down, while a more detailed analysis of the teams' head-to-head statistics and past performances may also influence the market's assessment. As the event approaches, the market will continue to reflect new information and adjust its pricing accordingly.

Generated Jul 09, 2026

Top of book

Bid	Size	Ask	Size
8.3¢	1788	8.9¢	303
8.2¢	186	9.0¢	2785
8.1¢	1110	9.2¢	10000
8.0¢	29811	9.3¢	33523
7.9¢	100	9.7¢	426

Spread 0.6¢ · Mid 8.6¢

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Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.