What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 27%, implying a 27% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 26, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Sports

Will France play Argentina in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final?

France vs Argentina

Closes Jul 26, 2026 (17d) 24h volume 214.0K Open interest 1.0M Event World Cup Final Matchup

27%

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 9 days · High 35% · Low 19% · 7d -30.8pp

Other outcomes in this event

AI analysis

The prediction market is currently indicating a 24% probability that France will play Argentina in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final. This assessment is based on known facts such as the teams' past performances and recent results. The current price of 0.24 suggests that the market is not overly optimistic or pessimistic about this potential matchup, but rather reflects a moderate level of uncertainty. Any significant changes in team dynamics, player injuries, or coaching decisions could potentially impact the price, with an increase in the YES price indicating a higher likelihood of France and Argentina facing off in the final match. Conversely, a decrease in the YES price would suggest a lower probability of this matchup occurring.

Generated Jul 09, 2026

Top of book

Bid	Size	Ask	Size
24.2¢	116	26.2¢	298
24.1¢	56	29.4¢	7
24.0¢	91	29.6¢	700
23.8¢	65	30.0¢	25
23.7¢	1	30.5¢	523

Spread 2.0¢ · Mid 25.2¢

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.