What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 5%, implying a 5% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 26, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Sports

Will Spain play Norway in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final?

Spain vs Norway

Closes Jul 26, 2026 (17d) 24h volume 69.1K Open interest 272.4K Event World Cup Final Matchup

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 7 days · High 9% · Low 1%

Other outcomes in this event

AI analysis

The prediction market is currently indicating a 5% probability that Spain will play Norway in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final. This assessment is informed by known facts such as the teams' performance in previous tournaments and their current standing in the qualification process. The current price of 0.05 suggests that the market does not expect this matchup to occur, but it also acknowledges that there are some underlying factors that could potentially lead to this outcome. Any changes to the teams' performance or unexpected developments during the tournament would likely impact the price, with a decrease in probability leading to a lower YES price and an increase in probability resulting in a higher YES price. The market will close on July 26th, 2026, at 22:00:00Z, providing a clear deadline for any potential changes to the teams' standing or tournament outcome.

Generated Jul 09, 2026

Top of book

Bid	Size	Ask	Size
5.0¢	2969	5.2¢	3362
4.9¢	100	5.3¢	589
4.8¢	25	5.5¢	100
4.6¢	9990	5.6¢	600
4.5¢	1200	6.0¢	5014

Spread 0.2¢ · Mid 5.1¢

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Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.