MAIN Main Street Capital Corporation
XNYS
53.83
Delayed
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership. Iron condor setups Expected move IV rank history Fibonacci levels Insider trading
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
MAIN
$53.83
—
Key stats
$53.83
- 52-Week Range
- $48.95 – $65.23
- YTD
- -12.83%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 44.88
- Straddle Price
- $3.00
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 1.00
- Market Cap
- $5.1B
- Open
- $54.37
- Day Range
- $53.50 – $54.58
- Volume
- 559,972
- Prev Close
- $54.27
Fair Value
MODEL: NEUTRAL
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 5.21% |
| Beta vs SPY | 0.82 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 9.30% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 8.33% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +31.8pp (IV − HV30) |
| Effective Tax Rate | 5.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +30.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 10 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.10 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $-0.1B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | 14.2% |
| Book / Price | 61.8% — banking bias active (P/B is primary) |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 99.3% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | -19.0% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.83 |
| Quality Score | 2/6 — normal (10y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $56.66 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $54.88 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 11.1% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $2.4B |
| Market Cap | $5B |
Peers used for multiples: ARCC, BXSL, CSWC, GBDC, HTGC, III, OBDC, TSLX
60-Day Conviction
1%
20-Day Fair Value
≈ by Nov 16, 2026
$53.70
α -0.2%
rank 36%
conviction
14%
40-Day Fair Value
≈ by Dec 15, 2026
$54.03
α +0.4%
rank 51%
conviction
11%
60-Day Fair Value
≈ by Jan 13, 2027
$53.84
α +0.0%
rank 56%
conviction
1%
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | n/a | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | $118.75 | 21% | |
| Peer P/E | $107.81 | 8% | median 17.8× · 8 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | $254.79 | 8% | median 32.0× · 8 peers |
| Peer P/B | $33.88 | 8% | median 1.0× · 8 peers |
| Peer P/S | $50.05 | 8% | median 5.2× · 8 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $56.66 | 49% | stability 95% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | $54.11 | 0% | 6 strikes · skew -2.90 |
As of 2026-10-16 · updated
About
- Exchange
- XNYS
- Market Cap
- $5.1B
- Employees
- 110
- List Date
- 2007-10-05
- CIK
- 0001396440
- Next Earnings
- 2026-11-05 (After-Close)
- EPS Forecast
- $0.93 (3 est.)
- Headquarters
- Houston, TX
- Homepage
- https://www.mainstcapital.com
Main Street Capital Corp is a principal investment firm focused on providing customized long-term debt and equity capital solutions to lower middle market ("LMM") companies and debt capital to private ("Private Loan") companies owned by or in the process of being acquired by a private equity fund. The group invests principally in secured debt investments, equity investments, warrants, and other securities of LMM companies, typically based in the U.S. The company operates as a single segment with a principal investment objective to maximize total return by generating current income from debt in…
Summary
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composite
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No summary data available for this symbol yet.
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
Chart
Seasonality
| Month | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 1.50% | -0.36% | 7.10% | 4.21% | 4.56% | 3.32% | 3.39% |
| Feb | 13.45% | -0.98% | 7.00% | 1.67% | -1.55% | -10.44% | 1.53% |
| Mar | 7.64% | -0.26% | -5.87% | 4.12% | -6.54% | -8.09% | -1.50% |
| Apr | 6.88% | -5.54% | 1.94% | 5.71% | -7.21% | 7.57% | 1.56% |
| May | -3.04% | -2.73% | -2.15% | -2.29% | 8.08% | -8.88% | -1.84% |
| Jun | -1.04% | 1.69% | 0.33% | 1.69% | 5.31% | 0.52% | 1.42% |
| Jul | -0.19% | 14.03% | 4.89% | 1.35% | 9.14% | 4.62% | 5.64% |
| Aug | 0.78% | -6.18% | -4.50% | -3.44% | 3.59% | 5.69% | -0.68% |
| Sep | -1.06% | -17.29% | -0.10% | 1.11% | -3.34% | -5.04% | -4.29% |
| Oct | 5.69% | 8.20% | -5.24% | 2.54% | -9.42% | -3.29%* | -0.25% |
| Nov | 2.30% | 2.66% | 5.17% | 9.47% | 1.54% | -- | 4.23% |
| Dec | 1.82% | -3.45% | 3.72% | 5.84% | 4.26% | -- | 2.44% |
| Total | 39.27% | -12.75% | 11.67% | 36.21% | 6.48% | -14.91% | 11.00% |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $54.76
SMA 50: $56.60
SMA 200: $55.86
Current: $53.83
EMA 12: $54.29
EMA 26: $55.00
MACD: -0.7083 | Signal: -0.0469
BEARISH
ADX (14): 23.88
WEAK TREND
+DI: 17.11
−DI: 19.80
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 39.35
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 16.26
Stoch %D: 12.80
Williams %R: -84.51
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $56.37
BB Lower: $53.15
NEUTRAL
OBV: -23,102,208
Vol SMA 20: 494,448
Vol ROC: 5.70%
ATR: $0.97
True Range: $1.08
HV 20: 14.8%
HV 30: 14.9%
HV 60: 18.6%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated:
Date Range: 2024-10-18T00:00:00 – 2026-10-16T00:00:00
AI Analysis
MAIN (Main Street Capital) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
Executive Summary
Overall Assessment: BEARISH | Confidence Level: 6.5/10
Main Street Capital presents a conflicted technical picture with bearish momentum indicators offset by defensive characteristics and a stable dividend narrative. The stock is trading below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages in a weakening trend, with negative MACD momentum and elevated put/call ratios suggesting investor caution. However, the low beta (0.78) and modest volatility provide downside cushioning typical of business development companies (BDCs).
Key Drivers:
- Weakening momentum with negative MACD histogram (-0.44) and bearish crossover signals
- Elevated put/call volume ratio (2.38) indicating heightened hedging/bearish positioning
- Low volatility regime (IV at 44.8% premium to realized) may provide entry opportunity if technicals stabilize
Primary Risks:
- Dividend sustainability concerns emerging in recent news discourse
- Weak trend strength (ADX 23.98) despite clear directional bias to downside
- Volume declining (-1.75% rate of change), suggesting weakening institutional conviction
Investment Thesis: MAIN is experiencing modest negative momentum in a low-volatility, defensive posture typical of income-focused BDCs. Recent discussion about dividend composition and sector-wide base rate cuts creates uncertainty around income sustainability, which is the primary value proposition for shareholders. Technical weakness combined with bearish options positioning suggests further consolidation or downside is more likely than near-term recovery.
Recent News Sentiment Impact: News sentiment is predominantly NEUTRAL-to-POSITIVE regarding dividends and sector dynamics, creating a notable divergence with negative technical signals. This disconnect suggests technicals may be pricing in concerns not yet fully reflected in headlines.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction
Short-term (1-4 weeks): BEARISH
- Price ($54.77) trades below all key moving averages (SMA 20: $55.73, SMA 50: $56.86)
- EMA 12 ($55.41) recently crossed below EMA 26 ($55.93), confirming bearish crossover
- ADX at 23.98 indicates weak trend strength, but -DI (22.78) exceeds +DI (15.86), showing downside control
Medium-term (1-3 months): NEUTRAL-TO-BEARISH
- SMA 50 ($56.86) above SMA 200 ($56.10) maintains medium-term structure, but relationship is tenuous
- Price currently 1.9% below 50-day MA suggests early-stage pullback within broader range
- The 200-day MA at $56.10 serves as a critical support level
Long-term (3-12 months): NEUTRAL
- 200-day MA positioning ($56.10) near current price suggests consolidation within established range
- No clear long-term trend established; stock appears range-bound
Support/Resistance Levels
| Level | Type | Significance | Distance | |-------|------|--------------|----------| | $54.40 | Support | Bollinger Band Lower / 2-week swing low zone | -0.67% | | $54.00 | Support | Psychological round number | -1.41% | | $53.00 | Support | Major technical support (likely 52-week range floor) | -3.16% | | $55.73 | Resistance | SMA 20 (immediate moving average) | +1.75% | | $56.86 | Resistance | SMA 50 (medium-term moving average) | +3.81% | | $57.05 | Resistance | Bollinger Band Upper Band | +4.18% |
Key Observation: Support/resistance levels are tightly clustered within a $3.00 range, indicating a consolidation pattern rather than trending environment. The Bollinger Band width of 4.75 is modest, suggesting low recent volatility.
Momentum Signals
RSI (14): 40.05 – NEUTRAL ZONE
- Reading at 40.05 is solidly neutral but positioned toward the lower half of the range (30-70)
- Not yet oversold (<30), indicating room for further downside before reaching capitulation
- Suggests momentum weakness without extreme pessimism
- Interpretation: Neutral with bearish undertone; watch for break below 30 as potential buy signal
MACD: BEARISH CROSSOVER ACTIVE
- MACD line (-0.52) trading below Signal line (-0.08)
- Negative histogram (-0.44) indicates bearish momentum acceleration
- This is an active bearish crossover, confirming downward momentum phase
- The magnitude of the negative histogram, while not extreme, shows sustained selling pressure
Stochastic Oscillators: EXTREME OVERSOLD SIGNALS
- %K at 17.58 and %D at 23.66 indicate deeply oversold conditions (both <30)
- Williams %R at -87.96 is extreme oversold territory
- CRITICAL: These readings typically precede mean reversion bounces within 2-7 trading days
- Divergence Alert: Extreme oversold readings contradict MACD bearish signal—suggests potential near-term bounce despite continued weakness
Bollinger Bands: NEUTRAL POSITIONING
- Price at $54.77 positioned between lower band ($54.40) and middle band ($55.73)
- Price is not at extremes; no squeeze condition present
- Interpretation: Room to move in either direction; no overbought/oversold band extremes to provide reversal signals
Momentum Synthesis: Conflicted signals with Stochastic/Williams %R oversold vs. MACD bearish momentum. This suggests potential bounce within ongoing downtrend—classic "oversold bounce" scenario.
Volume Analysis
Volume Trends:
- Volume SMA 20: 473,249 shares
- Volume Rate of Change: -1.75% (declining volume trend)
- Interpretation: Decreasing volume on downmove suggests selling pressure is waning, but insufficient volume accompanies any potential upside recovery
On-Balance Volume (OBV): -21,217,282 (NEGATIVE)
- Strongly negative OBV indicates cumulative selling pressure over recent period
- OBV trending downward suggests distribution phase, not accumulation
- This is consistent with bearish technical structure
Institutional Interest Signals:
- Declining volume rate of change (-1.75%) suggests institutional interest is fading
- Put/call volume ratio of 2.38 indicates institutional hedging/protective positioning
- Open Interest disparity (769 calls vs. 278 puts) shows put market is less liquid, but recent flow heavily favors puts
Volume Conclusion: Weak volume profile typical of income/defensive sector positioning; institutions appear to be hedging downside rather than accumulating on dips. Not a sign of strong conviction in either direction.
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary
Key Themes Identified (Last 10 Articles):
-
Dividend Sustainability Focus (Headlines #2, #5, #6)
- Central question emerging around whether dividends are paid from earnings or capital distribution
- Blue Owl's base dividend cut to $0.31 cited as cautionary example
- MAIN's dividend trajectory and sustainability being explicitly questioned
-
Sector-Wide BDC Dynamics (#4, #6)
- BDCs returning to investment-grade bond markets after frozen period
- Suggests improving credit conditions and refinancing opportunities
- Blue Owl dividend cut provides negative peer benchmark
-
Market Resilience Narrative (#1, #3)
- MAIN rising while broader market dips (counter-directional strength)
- BlackRock allocating 5-20% of target-date funds to private assets (supportive for BDC sector)
- Neutral observations suggesting stable positioning
Sentiment Assessment
Aggregate News Sentiment: NEUTRAL-to-POSITIVE (67% positive/neutral)
- 2 articles explicitly POSITIVE (dividend, BDC sector recovery)
- 5 articles NEUTRAL (market commentary, industry observations)
- 0 articles explicitly NEGATIVE (no negative-sentiment articles in sample)
Contradiction Alert: News sentiment remains positive/neutral while technical indicators have turned decisively bearish. This is a significant divergence suggesting either:
- Technical weakness is overreaction to temporary uncertainty
- News sentiment is lagging real deterioration in fundamentals
- Options market (put/call 2.38 ratio) is pricing in concerns not yet in headlines
Catalyst Identification
Immediate (1-7 days):
- None identified in
Generated
News
All MAIN news →
Main Street Capital has generated significant income for investors since its IPO.
Main Street Capital offers an attractive, well-supported yield, and the drawdown has made the valuation look reasonable again.
Earnings History
25 of 27 under expected move
Avg Expected Move
3.89%
Avg Actual Move
1.28%
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-01-20 | After-Close | 0.95% | 0.09% | 0.09x | Within |
| 2021-04-27 | After-Close | 1.04% | 1.52% | 1.46x | Exceeded |
| 2021-07-15 | After-Close | 3.82% | 0.56% | 0.15x | Within |
| 2021-10-19 | After-Close | 5.46% | 0.23% | 0.04x | Within |
| 2022-01-11 | After-Close | 2.35% | 0.54% | 0.23x | Within |
| 2022-02-25 | After-Close | 5.80% | 1.32% | 0.23x | Within |
| 2022-04-14 | After-Close | 7.19% | 0.77% | 0.11x | Within |
| 2022-07-14 | After-Close | 1.94% | 1.64% | 0.85x | Within |
| 2022-10-14 | After-Close | 6.22% | 2.90% | 0.47x | Within |
| 2023-01-12 | After-Close | 4.25% | 0.77% | 0.18x | Within |
| 2023-04-12 | After-Close | 2.68% | 1.23% | 0.46x | Within |
| 2023-07-13 | After-Close | 2.23% | 0.89% | 0.40x | Within |
| 2023-10-12 | After-Close | 2.04% | 0.03% | 0.01x | Within |
| 2024-01-16 | After-Close | 2.54% | 0.07% | 0.03x | Within |
| 2024-04-11 | After-Close | 3.93% | 1.78% | 0.45x | Within |
| 2024-07-16 | Pre-Market | 4.69% | 1.59% | 0.34x | Within |
| 2024-10-10 | After-Close | 2.41% | 0.57% | 0.24x | Within |
| 2024-11-07 | After-Close | 4.35% | 0.25% | 0.06x | Within |
| 2025-01-10 | After-Close | 3.03% | 0.49% | 0.16x | Within |
| 2025-02-27 | Pre-Market | 5.20% | 1.07% | 0.21x | Within |
| 2025-05-08 | After-Close | 6.93% | 0.15% | 0.02x | Within |
| 2025-08-07 | After-Close | 3.66% | 3.31% | 0.90x | Within |
| 2025-11-07 | After-Close | 5.24% | 0.00% | 0.00x | Within |
| 2026-01-15 | Pre-Market | 4.78% | 3.10% | 0.65x | Within |
| 2026-05-07 | After-Close | 4.42% | 4.58% | 1.04x | Exceeded |
| 2026-08-06 | After-Close | 5.28% | 3.79% | 0.72x | Within |
| 2026-10-08 | After-Close | 2.52% | 1.34% | 0.53x | Within |
Earnings calendar: this week’s reports with expected vs actual moves →
MAIN Options Activity & IV Rank
MAIN IV rank history, 52-week IV rank and IV percentile →
Volatility Metrics
Current IV: 22.6%
7-DTE IV: —
Expected Move: $3.00
7-DTE Move: $1.10
Days to Exp: 35 (2026-11-20)
Options Flow
Call Volume: 116
Put Volume: 116
P/C Volume: 1.0
NEUTRAL
Call OI: 875
Put OI: 513
P/C OI: 0.586
Total OI: 1,388
ATM Options Pricing
ATM Call: $0.95
ATM Put: $2.05
Call %: 1.8%
Put %: 3.8%
Chain Summary
Chain Volume: 1,326
Chain OI: 22,463
Last Updated: 10/16/2026
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Dealer Positioning
TYPICAL γ
Estimated net dealer gamma is at the 66th percentile of this name's own daily history, within its typical range. This describes current positioning; it is not a forecast or a trading signal.
Gamma percentile
66%
vs own history
GEX tilt
+0.14
OI-weighted, today
Vanna tilt
+0.74
δ-sensitivity to IV
Charm tilt
-0.71
δ-decay vs time
Vanna tilt +0.74: the estimated dealer exposure leans positive, so the modeled hedge would shift noticeably if implied volatility changed.
Charm tilt -0.71: the estimated dealer exposure leans negative, so the modeled hedge would shift noticeably as time passes and options approach expiry.
? What is this?
· 10 ATM contracts, 5k total OI
Net dealer gamma is an estimate of the aggregate gamma held by options market makers across this name's option chain, weighted by open interest. Dealer positions aren't public, so it uses a standard simplifying assumption: dealers are treated as long the calls and short the puts that are open. Actual dealer books can differ.
Gamma percentile ranks today's estimate against this name's own daily history, from 0% (the lowest reading on record) to 100% (the highest). Raw gamma scales with how much open interest a chain carries, so it isn't comparable across names; the percentile is. The badge marks the bottom 20% as low and the top 20% as high.
Tilts run from −1 to +1 and show how lopsided the estimated dealer exposure is. GEX tilt compares call gamma with put gamma. Vanna tilt describes how the hedge would shift if implied volatility changed, and charm tilt how it would shift with the passage of time.
This card describes estimated positioning and where it sits historically. It is not a forecast of price direction or volatility and not a trading signal. Market-wide view: Dealer positioning screener.
Skew (Wing IV − ATM IV)
DTE:
Wing Δ:
Wing vs ATM
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
Risk Reversal
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Reading them together
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
14 DTE / 10d
—
—
pts
EXTREME
as of Oct 16 · No data
30 DTE / 10d
—
—
pts
EXTREME
as of Oct 16 · ATM 21.1% / Wing —
Extreme reading.
Historically these have been contrarian — on the small set of observed earnings-day cases, large negative wing-vs-ATM gaps (calls pricing much richer than puts at the same delta) preceded sharp drops in the underlying within 1-12 days. Not financial advice and the dataset is small.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Volatility Smile
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)44.9MediumOct 16
Straddle Price (30 DTE)$3.00Oct 16
Beta Analysis
Risk Metrics
Beta: 0.7292
Alpha: -14.34%
Correlation: 0.3829
R-Squared: 14.7%
Stock Volatility: 24.2%
Market Volatility: 12.7%
Analysis Details
Benchmark: SPY
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Interpretation:
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
Notable investors who own MAIN
3 of 37 tracked investors
| Investor | Value | Share of their portfolio | Rank | Q/Q shares | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millennium Management Hedge fund Izzy Englander | $7.0M | #1834 of 3716 | -62.6% | 13F | |
| Rockefeller Capital Management Family office Rockefeller family | $2.8M | #1223 of 4729 | +3.2% | 13F | |
| Citadel Hedge fund Ken Griffin | $1.6M | #3144 of 6285 | +5.3% | 13F |
Hedge funds, activists, holding companies and family offices we track, from their latest 13F (quarter-end value) and Form 4 filings in the last 3 years. Family offices · all institutions
MAIN Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-09-30
? 13F Guide
Diluted shares outstanding: 89,240,065 (as of 2025-12-31)
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
3 filers$18.79M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $11.50M | 61.20% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian | $3.85M | 20.49% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $3.44M | 18.31% | 2026-06-30 |
5 filers$24.38M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $14.05M | 57.65% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $4.33M | 17.75% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian | $3.56M | 14.60% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | Kathmere Capital Management, LLC | $1.82M | 7.45% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | Crawford Fund Management, LLC | $622.56K | 2.55% | 2026-06-30 |
MAIN Insider Trading (Form 4)
Latest: 2026-09-15Form 4 filings — insider beneficial-ownership changes by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders. Filed within 2 business days of transaction.
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Stephen B Solcher | Director | Other (J) | +185 | $58.80 | $10.9K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-15 | Jon Kevin Griffin | Director | Other (J) | +251 | $58.83 | $14.8K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-15 | Dwayne L. Hyzak | CEO, SMD | Other (J) | +406 | $59.23 | $24.1K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-15 | Dunia A Shive | Director | Other (J) | +97 | $58.80 | $5.7K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-15 | Brian E. Lane | Director | Other (J) | +236 | $58.92 | $13.9K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-15 | John Earl Jackson | Director | Other (J) | +322 | $58.93 | $19.0K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-15 | David L. Magdol | PRESIDENT, CIO AND SMD | Other (J) | +118 | $59.11 | $7.0K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-15 | Ryan McHugh | VP, CAO & Assistant Treasurer | Other (J) | +67 | $59.23 | $4.0K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-15 | Vincent D Foster | Director | Other (J) | +1,386 | $59.23 | $82.1K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-03 | Jason B Beauvais | EVP, GC, SECRETARY | Mixed | −27 | $59.23 | $5.8K | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-24 | Jesse E Morris | EVP AND COO | Sell (S) | −35,000 | $58.55 | -$2.05M | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-14 | Dwayne L. Hyzak | CEO, SMD | Other (J) | +1,427 | $51.98 | $74.2K | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-14 | Dunia A Shive | Director | Other (J) | +337 | $52.06 | $17.6K | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-14 | Jason B Beauvais | EVP, GC, SECRETARY | Other (J) | +344 | $51.98 | $17.9K | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-14 | David L. Magdol | PRESIDENT, CIO AND SMD | Other (J) | +335 | $52.35 | $17.6K | EDGAR |
Codes: P = open-market purchase · S = open-market sale · A = grant/award · M = option exercise · F = tax withholding at vest · G = bona-fide gift · D = disposition to issuer · J = other (described in filing footnote — typically 401(k), trust, inheritance) · W = will/inheritance. Only P / S codes carry directional signal.
MAIN Insider Holdings
13 insiders · @ $53.83
Officers, directors, and 10%+ owners who have filed a Form 4 in the past two years, ranked by current disclosed exposure (shares × today's price). Shares are direct + indirect (via trusts / LLCs / spouse). Excludes unvested RSU and option grants — those aren't beneficially owned until vest.
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vincent D Foster | Director | 1,748,848 | $94.14M | $2.29M | 252 | 2026-09-15 |
| 2 | Dwayne L. Hyzak | CEO, SMD | 508,681 | $27.38M | -$14.05M | 246 | 2026-09-15 |
| 3 | David L. Magdol | PRESIDENT, CIO AND SMD | 491,141 | $26.44M | -$12.88M | 248 | 2026-09-15 |
| 4 | Jesse E Morris | EVP AND COO | 232,568 | $12.52M | -$4.03M | 78 | 2026-08-24 |
| 5 | Jason B Beauvais | EVP, GC, SECRETARY | 196,502 | $10.58M | -$2.95M | 233 | 2026-09-03 |
| 6 | Nicholas Meserve | MANAGING DIRECTOR | 96,444 | $5.19M | -$3.00M | 98 | 2026-04-03 |
| 7 | John Earl Jackson | Director | 87,637 | $4.72M | $579.9K | 179 | 2026-09-15 |
| 8 | Jon Kevin Griffin | Director | 74,682 | $4.02M | $134.7K | 188 | 2026-09-15 |
| 9 | Brian E. Lane | Director | 53,322 | $2.87M | $8.0K | 145 | 2026-09-15 |
| 10 | Stephen B Solcher | Director | 52,814 | $2.84M | $9.2K | 144 | 2026-09-15 |
Lifetime OM Net = signed sum of open-market buys (P) and sells (S) over their career; excludes grants, tax withholdings, and dispositions to issuer. A large negative number is normal for long-tenured executives — they've sold compensation grants over many years.
MAIN Proposed Insider Sales (Form 144)
Latest: 2026-08-21
? Form 144 Guide
Last 30d:
0 filings
· Last 90d:
1 filing
· $2.0M notice value
· 1 unique filer
What is Form 144? A notice of intent to sell restricted or control stock under Rule 144. Affiliates (officers, directors, 10%+ owners) and holders of restricted shares must file Form 144 when planning to sell more than 5,000 shares or $50,000 in any 3-month rolling window.
How it relates to Form 4: Form 144 is filed before the trade (up to 90 days in advance); Form 4 is filed within 2 business days after the trade executes. Not every Form 144 results in a sale — the filer may cancel or delay. Look for the corresponding Form 4 on the Insider Activity card to confirm a sale actually happened.
10b5-1 plans: Trades made under a pre-scheduled Rule 10b5-1 plan are not discretionary — they execute automatically on dates set months earlier, regardless of news. High 10b5-1 percentages mean less per-filing signal value, though cumulative selling volume still matters.
"Notice value": Aggregate market value the filer wrote into the Form 144 — i.e. the size of the planned sale, not necessarily the executed dollars. An amended notice (Form 144/A) replaces the original it amends, and cancelled notices are dropped, so neither is double-counted above. A filed value that is clearly inconsistent with the share count at the stock's price (a filer typo) shows as a dash and is left out of the totals.
Source & freshness: Sourced from public Form 144 filings. Refreshed daily; new filings typically appear here the morning after they are filed.
Top 90-day filers:
Jesse E. Morris (1, $2.0M)
| Filed | Filer | Role | Shares | Notice Value | Planned Sale | Broker | Plan | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Jesse E. Morris | Officer | 35,000 | $2.04M | 2026-08-21 | Raymond James & Associates, Inc. | — | EDGAR |
| 2026-06-30 | Jason B. Beauvais | Officer | 6,830 | $352.2K | 2026-06-30 | Raymond James & Associates, Inc. | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-08-14 | Meserve Nicholas | Officer | 14,000 | $940.1K | 2025-08-14 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-06-27 | Jesse E. Morris | Officer | 35,000 | $2.08M | 2025-06-27 | Raymond James & Associates, Inc. | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-06-27 | Jason B. Beauvais | Officer | 13,664 | $810.5K | 2025-06-27 | Raymond James & Associates, Inc. | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-03-26 | Dwayne L. Hyzak | Officer, Director | 120,000 | $7.08M | 2025-03-26 | Raymond James & Associates, Inc. | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-03-26 | David L. Magdol | Officer | 100,143 | $5.91M | 2025-03-26 | Raymond James & Associates, Inc. | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-03-05 | FOSTER VINCENT D | Director | 85,000 | $4.86M | 2025-03-05 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2024-12-10 | Meserve Nicholas | Officer | 9,000 | $495.1K | 2024-12-10 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2024-03-07 | Meserve Nicholas | Officer | 6,000 | $275.8K | 2024-03-07 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | — | EDGAR |
Notice value is the aggregate market value the filer states they intend to sell — not a confirmed transaction. Compare to Insider Activity (Form 4) to see which planned sales actually executed. Market-wide feed: Planned sales (Form 144).
ETF Holders
13 ETFs hold MAIN
13 shown · $143.74M total exposure · 4.92% AUM-weighted avg weight
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BIZD VanEck BDC Income ETF | VanEck | 5.32% | $77.0M | $1.4B | 2026-10-15 |
| 2 | PEY Invesco High Yield Equity Dividend Achievers ETF | Invesco | 2.25% | $24.8M | — | 2026-10-15 |
| 3 | PBDC Putnam BDC Income ETF | Franklin | 8.69% | $23.5M | $270.7M | 2026-10-15 |
| 4 | TMSL T. Rowe Price Small-Mid Cap ETF | Nport | 0.25% | $6.8M | — | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | FBDC FT Confluence BDC & Specialty Finance Income ETF | First Trust | 12.45% | $4.4M | $35.3M | 2026-10-15 |
| 6 | PSP Invesco Global Listed Private Equity ETF | Invesco | 1.04% | $2.2M | — | 2026-10-15 |
| 7 | MDIV Multi-Asset Diversified Income Index Fund | First Trust | 0.39% | $1.6M | $412.0M | 2026-10-15 |
| 8 | HYIN WisdomTree Private Credit and Alternative Income Fund | Nport | 2.96% | $1.5M | — | 2026-05-31 |
| 9 | PEX ProShares Global Listed Private Equity ETF | ProShares | 7.59% | $776,928 | — | 2026-10-16 |
| 10 | KVLE KraneShares Value Line Dynamic Dividend Equity Index ETF | Nport | 1.44% | $569,175 | — | 2026-06-30 |
| 11 | VPC Virtus Private Credit Strategy ETF | Nport | 0.93% | $280,810 | — | 2026-07-31 |
| 12 | PFM Invesco Dividend Achievers ETF | Invesco | 0.02% | $143,056 | — | 2026-10-15 |
| 13 | LBO WHITEWOLF Publicly Listed Private Equity ETF | Nport | 0.93% | $65,292 | — | 2026-07-31 |
Fundamentals
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
Metrics
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
Trailing P/E
9.75
TTM Diluted EPS
$5.52
TTM Revenue
$786.96M
TTM Net Income
$493.40M
TTM Op. Cash Flow
$-45.70M
Quarterly figures (12 quarters)
| Quarter | Period End | Revenue | Net Income | Diluted EPS | Op. Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 '25 | 2025-12-31 | $299.00M | $131.11M | $1.46 | $-218.46M |
| Q3 '25 | 2025-09-30 | $139.83M | $123.67M | $1.38 | $90.63M |
| Q2 '25 | 2025-06-30 | $177.44M | $122.53M | $1.37 | $102.52M |
| Q1 '25 | 2025-03-31 | $170.69M | $116.08M | $1.31 | $-20.40M |
| Q4 '24 | 2024-12-31 | $324.09M | $174.23M | $1.98 | $145.05M |
| Q3 '24 | 2024-09-30 | $136.82M | $124.01M | $1.42 | $72.39M |
| Q2 '24 | 2024-06-30 | $158.61M | $102.69M | $1.19 | $-186.47M |
| Q1 '24 | 2024-03-31 | $159.89M | $107.15M | $1.26 | $-118.08M |
| Q4 '23 | 2023-12-31 | $177.53M | $139.08M | $1.66 | $153.68M |
| Q3 '23 | 2023-09-30 | $150.91M | $103.26M | $1.25 | $83.96M |
| Q2 '23 | 2023-06-30 | $157.02M | $106.52M | $1.32 | $27.71M |
| Q1 '23 | 2023-03-31 | $126.99M | $79.59M | $1.00 | $19.97M |
Q4 2025 • period ending 2025-12-31 • filed 2026-02-27
Valuation
Ratios derived from TTM financials and the current market price, sampled daily. History chart shows how expensive the stock is today relative to its own recent past.
Price Multiples
- P/E — price / TTM earnings. Rough market rule: 10–15 value, 15–25 market, >30 growth/premium. Negative when earnings are negative.
- P/B — price / book value. Useful for financials and asset-heavy names; meaningless for asset-light software.
- P/S — price / TTM revenue. Useful when earnings are negative or noisy (early-stage growth).
- EV/EBITDA — capital-structure-neutral. <10 cheap, 10–15 reasonable, >20 rich. Good for comparing across leverage profiles.
- EV/Sales — like P/S but accounts for debt + cash. Compare within sector.
Profitability & Yields
- ROE — return on equity. >15% strong, >25% exceptional. Caution: high leverage inflates ROE.
- ROA — return on assets. Leverage-neutral; >5% solid, >10% exceptional.
- Div Yield — annual dividend / price. Compare to 10Y Treasury; sustained yield >6% often signals distress.
- FCF Yield — free cash flow / market cap. >5% is attractive; negative means burning cash.
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity — leverage. <1 conservative, >2 aggressive. Sector-dependent (utilities naturally high, tech low).
- Current Ratio — short-term liquidity. >1.5 comfortable, <1 raises short-term solvency flags.
Reading the history chart
- Compare current level to the 3-year band: near the high end = relatively expensive; near the low = relatively cheap.
- Multiples expanding while earnings are flat = sentiment-driven rally.
- Multiples compressing while earnings grow = value coming from fundamentals.
P/E
9.75
P/B
1.60
P/S
6.10
EV/EBITDA
10.13
EV/Sales
9.21
ROE
16.5%
ROA
8.7%
Div Yield
6.88%
FCF Yield
-0.95%
Debt/Equity
0.83
Current Ratio
—
Market Cap
$4.80B
as of 2026-10-16
Short Interest & Float
Regulatory short-interest reports publish on a bi-weekly settlement cadence; short-volume is reported daily by the trade-reporting facilities. Float is derived from insider-ownership filings.
Metric definitions
- Short Interest — total shares currently sold short as of the settlement date. Lags real time by ~8 business days.
- SI % of Float — short interest / free float. The key crowding metric.
- Days to Cover — short interest / avg daily volume. How many full trading days it would take shorts to buy back. High DTC + catalyst = squeeze fuel.
- Short Vol Ratio — today's short-sale volume / total volume. Intraday selling pressure proxy (not the same as short interest).
- Free Float — shares available for public trading (total shares minus insider / restricted).
- Float % — free float / shares outstanding. <50% = tightly held, more prone to squeezes.
How to read the signals
- SI % of Float < 5% — typical, no particular signal.
- 5–15% — elevated; watch for catalysts (earnings, guidance, macro).
- 15–30% — heavily shorted; tight-float names in this range have produced notable squeezes historically.
- >30% — extreme; borrow is likely expensive and squeeze risk is material.
- Days to Cover > 5 combined with high SI% amplifies squeeze potential.
History chart
- Trend matters more than level. Rapidly rising short interest often precedes negative catalysts or heavy hedging.
- A sudden drop in SI after a rally may indicate a squeeze in progress.
Short interest is reported mid-month and end-of-month; short volume is daily.
Short Interest
9.56M
SI % of Float
10.64%
Days to Cover
20.07
Short Vol Ratio
58.0%
Free Float
89.85M
Float %
96.1%
Short interest 2026-09-30 • Short volume 2026-10-16 • Float 2026-08-14