What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 3%, implying a 3% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 26, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Sports

Will Belgium play Argentina in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final?

Belgium vs Argentina

Closes Jul 26, 2026 (17d) 24h volume 98.8K Open interest 197.3K Event World Cup Final Matchup

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 4 days · High 3% · Low 1%

Other outcomes in this event

AI analysis

The prediction market is currently pricing a 2% chance that Belgium will play Argentina in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final. This assessment is informed by known facts such as the teams' recent performances and group stage draw. The current price does not reflect any specific information about the teams' abilities or potential matchups during the tournament, but rather represents a general consensus among market participants. A significant change in the probability of this matchup occurring would require new information that impacts the likelihood of Belgium's performance in the tournament, such as an unexpected upset or a dominant display by either team.

Generated Jul 09, 2026

Top of book

Bid	Size	Ask	Size
2.6¢	1000	2.7¢	5025
2.4¢	100	2.8¢	10467
2.2¢	788	2.9¢	2500
2.0¢	1050	3.0¢	1110
1.9¢	28	3.1¢	50

Spread 0.1¢ · Mid 2.6¢

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Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.