What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 1%, implying a 1% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 26, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Sports

Will Belgium play Norway in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final?

Belgium vs Norway

Closes Jul 26, 2026 (17d) 24h volume 85.6K Open interest 303.2K Event World Cup Final Matchup

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 4 days · High 4% · Low 0%

Other outcomes in this event

AI analysis

The prediction market is currently indicating a 1% probability that Belgium will play Norway in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final. This assessment is informed by known facts such as the teams' performance in previous tournaments and their current standing in the qualification process. The market price would likely increase if there were significant changes to either team's roster or coaching staff, potentially altering their chances of advancing deep into the tournament. Conversely, a decline in one of the teams' performance or an unexpected upset in the group stage could lead to a decrease in the YES price. As the qualification process unfolds and more information becomes available, the market price may fluctuate accordingly. The current low probability suggests that many market participants do not currently see this matchup as a likely outcome.

Generated Jul 09, 2026

Top of book

Bid	Size	Ask	Size
1.0¢	13567	1.2¢	2368
0.9¢	128	1.3¢	199
0.8¢	6849	1.7¢	193
0.5¢	2000	1.8¢	400
0.4¢	3500	2.0¢	12610

Spread 0.2¢ · Mid 1.1¢

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.