polymarket
Sports
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Argentina
11%
implied YES probability
+2.8pp 24h
Price history
Last 90 days ·
High 11% ·
Low 8%
· 7d 0.0pp
· 30d -1.2pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
-
Argentina Secures World Bank Backing for $2 Billion Private Loan
Bloomberg Markets · 7h ago
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World Bank readies $2 billion loan for Argentina, Ambito reports
Investing.com · 7h ago
AI analysis
The prediction market for Argentina winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup currently prices in a 10% probability of occurrence, with a YES price of 0.10. This assessment is informed by known facts about Argentina's national team and their performance in recent international competitions. The current price does not reflect any specific event or development that would significantly impact the market's expectations. A change in the team's coaching staff, key player injuries, or changes in FIFA rules governing the tournament could potentially influence the YES price, driving it up if such developments favor Argentina's chances of winning or down if they hinder their prospects.
Generated Jun 17, 2026
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.