polymarket
Sports
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Spain
13%
implied YES probability
-1.4pp 24h
Price history
Last 90 days ·
High 18% ·
Low 15%
· 7d -8.2pp
· 30d -11.5pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
AI analysis
The prediction market for Spain winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup currently indicates a 13% probability of occurrence, with a YES price of 0.13. This assessment is informed by known facts about Spain's national team and their performance in recent international competitions. The current price does not reflect any specific event or development that would significantly impact the likelihood of Spain winning the tournament. A change in the market price would likely be driven by new information about Spain's team, such as changes to their coaching staff, player injuries, or significant victories or defeats in friendly matches or other international competitions.
Generated Jun 17, 2026
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.