What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 18%, implying a 18% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 20, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Sports

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

France

Closes Jul 20, 2026 (32d) 24h volume $3.2M Open interest $45.5M Event World Cup Winner

18%

implied YES probability

+0.9pp 24h

Price history

Last 90 days · High 18% · Low 10% · 7d +8.7pp · 30d +0.6pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

AI analysis

The prediction market for France winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup is currently priced at 0.18, indicating an 18% probability of this outcome occurring. This price is informed by known facts such as France's performance in recent international tournaments and their current standing within the global football community. The market will close on July 20, 2026, at midnight UTC. Any changes to France's chances of winning would likely impact the price, with a decrease in probability resulting in a lower YES price and an increase in probability leading to a higher YES price. Conversely, any events that significantly improve or worsen France's prospects could cause the price to move up or down accordingly.

Generated Jun 17, 2026

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.